Les populistes aux portes de l’Europe

LONDRES – La crise en Europe est-elle terminée ? Les investisseurs, les analystes politiques et même les fonctionnaires laissent entendre que c’est probablement le cas. L’euro s’est renforcé de près de 10 % par rapport au dollar depuis que le président de la Banque centrale européenne Mario Draghi a promis le 26 juillet de faire « tout ce qu’il faudrait » pour maintenir la devise en place.

De même, l’indice VIX de l’euro, une mesure très utilisée de la volatilité anticipée de l’euro, s’est considérablement abaissé. Le mois dernier, le coût d’achat de protection contre les fluctuations du taux de change de l’euro en dollar a reculé à son plus bas niveau depuis près de cinq ans. Les coûts d’emprunt des gouvernements espagnols et italiens ont également chuté considérablement.

Un scénario cohérent sous-tend cette meilleure conjoncture. Les dirigeants européens ont mis en place les mécanismes d’aide à l’Italie et à l’Espagne. Depuis octobre, le continent a mis en branle le Mécanisme européen de stabilité (MES) pour l’achat de nouvelles obligations des gouvernements italiens et espagnols en cas de grève des investisseurs.

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