站在地上的央行行长

新德里—随着美联储暗示它可能在年底时削减债券购买规模,市场再次动荡。市场反应之激烈令人惊奇,至少从人们关于美联储量化宽松政策作用原理的理解上看是如此。毕竟,美联储很小心地暗示它会维持近零利率政策,也不会卖掉所持有的债券。

关于量化宽松作用原理的主导理论是投资组合平衡观点。从本质上说,通过从私人投资者投资组合中买入长期美国国债,美联储希望这些投资者能再平衡其投资组合。因为风险资产被移出并替换成安全的央行准备金,投资者未满足的风险胃口会增加,所有风险资产(包括私人手里剩余的长期美国国债)将上升,债券收益率将下降。

这一理论的核心要素是美联储从私人投资组合中吸出的债券存量(而不是美联储的买入流)将决定投资者的风险胃口。除非投资者认为美联储会永远买入债券不停歇,否则美联储减少购买量的新闻应该只会对他们关于美联储的最周债券存量持有量的预期产生温和影响。那么,为何全世界市场会产生如此大的波澜?

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