Europe’s Political Stress Tests
PRINCETON – In recent years, the European Union – or, more accurately, the powerful countries of northern Europe – has been subjecting its weaker members to social and political “stress tests” in the name of fiscal rectitude. As a result, southern Europe and parts of Eastern Europe have become a kind of political laboratory, with experiments producing strikingly varied – and increasingly unpredictable – outcomes in different countries. At the last EU summit, Luxembourg’s prime minister, Jean-Claude Juncker, even suggested that the risk of a “social revolution” should not be excluded.
While that outcome remains unlikely, it is increasingly clear that many European countries – and the EU as a whole – need to renegotiate their basic social contracts. But European elites, preoccupied with short-term fixes, have not considered the long-term need for such revisions – to their own detriment.
Indeed, despite significant variations by country, one trend is becoming increasingly apparent across the EU: voters, regardless of their political orientation, are ejecting at the first opportunity leaders who implement austerity. But, beyond this overwhelming opposition to austerity, countries’ experiences vary widely.