Las pruebas de resistencia políticas de Europa

PRINCETON – En los últimos años, la Unión Europea -o, más precisamente, los países poderosos del norte de Europa- han venido sometiendo a sus miembros más débiles a "pruebas de resistencia" sociales y políticas en nombre de la rectitud fiscal. Como resultado, el sur de Europa y partes del este de Europa se han convertido en una suerte de laboratorio político, con experimentos que producen resultados asombrosamente variados -y cada vez más impredecibles- en diferentes países. En la última cumbre de la UE, el primer ministro de Luxemburgo, Jean-Claude Juncker, llegó a sugerir que no debía descartarse el riesgo de una "revolución social".

Si bien ese desenlace sigue siendo improbable, resulta cada vez más evidente que muchos países europeos -y la UE en su totalidad- necesitan renegociar sus contratos sociales básicos. Pero las elites europeas, preocupadas por las reparaciones a corto plazo, no han considerado la necesidad a largo plazo de llevar a cabo esas revisiones -en detrimento propio.

Por cierto, a pesar de variaciones importantes entre unos países y otros, hay una tendencia que cada vez se torna más evidente en toda la UE: los votantes, más allá de su orientación política, en la primera oportunidad que se les presenta rechazan a los líderes que implementan medidas de austeridad. Pero, más allá de esta oposición abrumadora a la austeridad, las experiencias de los países varían enormemente.

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