Фактор Фельпса

10 декабря Эдмунд Фельпс, мой коллега из Колумбийского университета, получает нобелевскую премию по экономике за 2006 год. Награда сильно запоздала. Пока Комитет нобелевской премии перечислял его вклады в макроэкономику, Фельпс сделал важные вклады во многие другие области, включая теорию экономического роста и технологических изменений, оптимального налогообложения и социальной справедливости.

Главное наблюдение Фельпса в макроэкономике заключается в том, что зависимость между инфляцией и безработицей подвержена влиянию ожиданий, а поскольку сами ожидания эндогенны (т.е. меняются со временем), то и зависимость между безработицей и инфляцией будет меняться. Если правительство какой-либо страны попытается слишком сильно снизить уровень безработицы, произойдёт рост инфляции и ожиданий инфляции.

В данной идее можно увидеть два возможных варианта действий. Некоторые сделали вывод из анализа Фельпса о невозможности раз и навсегда снизить уровень безработицы, не вызвав постоянного роста инфляции. Поэтому финансовые органы и учреждения должны просто сосредоточиться на сохранении стабильности цен, поддерживая такой уровень безработицы, при котором инфляция не будет расти. Такой уровень безработицы получил название «уровень безработицы, не стимулирующий роста инфляции» (NAIRU).

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