菲尔普斯因素

12月10日,我在哥伦比亚大学的同事菲尔普斯将会接受2006年度的诺贝尔经济奖,这是一份他早就应该得到的奖。诺贝尔奖委员会表彰了他对宏观经济方面的贡献,但是菲尔普斯在许多领域都作出了很大的贡献,包括关于增长和技术改变、最佳税收和社会正义的理论。

菲尔普斯在宏观经济领域方面最主要的发现是通货膨胀率和失业率的关系受到预期的影响,而因为期望值本身是内生的,它们会随着时间而改变,所以,通货膨胀率和失业率的关系也会改变。如果政府试图把失业率降到过低的水平,那么通货膨胀率就会上升,而通货膨胀预期也会升高。

这一见解可能会带来两种政策。一些政策制定者从菲尔普斯的分析总结说,失业率不可能会被永久地降低而不带来通货膨胀率的持续上升。因此,货币管理当局只需把注意力放在价格的稳定上,其做法是找到一个合适的失业率水平,在该水平上通货膨胀率不会上升,称作“非加速通货膨胀的失业率”(NAIRU)。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/yFPxtzl/zh;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now