菲尔普斯因素

12月10日，我在哥伦比亚大学的同事菲尔普斯将会接受2006年度的诺贝尔经济奖，这是一份他早就应该得到的奖。诺贝尔奖委员会表彰了他对宏观经济方面的贡献，但是菲尔普斯在许多领域都作出了很大的贡献，包括关于增长和技术改变、最佳税收和社会正义的理论。

菲尔普斯在宏观经济领域方面最主要的发现是通货膨胀率和失业率的关系受到预期的影响，而因为期望值本身是内生的，它们会随着时间而改变，所以，通货膨胀率和失业率的关系也会改变。如果政府试图把失业率降到过低的水平，那么通货膨胀率就会上升，而通货膨胀预期也会升高。

这一见解可能会带来两种政策。一些政策制定者从菲尔普斯的分析总结说，失业率不可能会被永久地降低而不带来通货膨胀率的持续上升。因此，货币管理当局只需把注意力放在价格的稳定上，其做法是找到一个合适的失业率水平，在该水平上通货膨胀率不会上升，称作“非加速通货膨胀的失业率”（NAIRU）。

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