Chris Van Es

金融危机的堕落政治学

芝加哥——

 在理解了金融危机中政府干预的模式和时机后,我们可以模仿法国哲学家帕斯卡尔的话来概括结论:政治学有经济学所理解不了的激励。

从经济学的观点看,问题是简单的。当某主权借款人的偿付能力已被完全破坏时,其命运就维系于市场预期了。如果所有人都预期意大利能够偿付债务,那么他们就会以较低利率借钱给意大利。意大利将履行当前偿付义务,也很可能会偿还以后的债务。但如果很多人开始怀疑意大利的偿付能力进而在借钱时要求较高的溢价,那么意大利的财政赤字将恶化,并很可能会违约。

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