Die großen Märchen der großen Banken

WASHINGTON, DC – Zur Erklärung der jüngsten Finanzreformbemühungen und der weltweiten Gefahren durch sehr große Banken existieren zwei konkurrierende Geschichten. Eine davon ist falsch, und die andere ist beängstigend.

Im Zentrum der ersten Geschichte, die von Finanzmanagern bevorzugt wird, steht die Ansicht, dass alle nötigen Reformen bereits durchgeführt werden (oder dass dies bald passieren wird). Die Banken haben im Vergleich zu ihrem Eigenkapital weniger Schulden als 2007. In den Vereinigten Staaten gibt es neue Regeln zur Begrenzung des Umfangs von Bankaktivitäten, und Großbritannien wird bald folgen – und vielleicht auch Kontinentaleuropa. Vertreter dieser Ansicht behaupten auch, die Megabanken hätten heute ihre Risiken besser unter Kontrolle als vor der globalen Finanzkrise 2008.

In der zweiten Geschichte sind die weltweit größten Banken auch heute zu groß, um kontrolliert werden zu können, und unterliegen weiterhin Anreizen, genau die Art exzessiver Risiken einzugehen, die ganze Volkswirtschaften zum Einsturz bringen können. Die Handelsverluste des “Londoner Wals” bei JPMorgan Chase im letzten Jahr sind dafür beispielhaft. Und laut den Vertretern dieser Geschichte zeigen fast alle großen Banken Symptome chronischer Misswirtschaft.

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