大银行怪谈

发自华盛顿特区——关于近期金融改革的努力和大型银行给全世界带来的危险,有两种相互矛盾的说法:其中一种是错的;而另一种则是令人胆寒的。

金融业高管偏爱第一种说法,其核心观点是银行已经(或者很快会)采取所有必要的改革措施。银行的负债/资产比率已经低于2007年的水平。美国限制银行活动的新规定已经就位,而英国很快会就此立法——随后欧洲大陆可能会效仿。这一观点的支持者还声称银行巨头的风险管理比2008年全球金融危机爆发前做得要好得多。

第二种说法是,世界上的银行巨头依然庞大得难以驾驭,而且它们有强烈的动机进行那种会搞垮经济的过度冒险。去年摩根大通的“伦敦鲸”巨额交易损失就是一个明显的例子。而且按照这种说法的主张,几乎所有大银行都表现出长期管理不善的病态。

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