Опасность нанесения удара по Ирану

Зимой 2002-03 годов сторонники смены режима в Ираке с оптимизмом смотрели на пост-наступательную фазу войны. Любой, кто осмелился бы предположить, что происходящее сегодня могло стать вероятным сценарием, подвергся бы критике, как являющийся про-Саддамски настроенным миротворцем, противником США, или сразу и тем и другим вместе. И все же, трезвая оценка трудностей, данная заранее, помогла бы избежать многих ошибок, которые, как оказалось, являются достаточно дорогостоящими в вопросах жизней американцев и их ресурсов, не говоря уже о страданиях жителей Ирака.

Сегодня некоторые личности в США и других странах предлагают начать военные действия против Ирана. Таким образом, логично было бы задать вопрос: каков реалистичный сценарий действий относительно последствий такого вмешательства? Существуют ли какие-либо планы относительно того, как себя вести в фазе, следующей за активными военными действиями?

Без сомнения, те, кто желают нанести удар – либо в одиночку, либо в коалиции – имеют сразу несколько вариантов, от морской и воздушной блокады до точечных бомбардировок, саботажа внутри страны и массивного вторжения извне. Но и Иран имеет козырные карты у себя в рукаве – некоторые предсказуемые, некоторые совершенно дикие.

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