Die Gefahren eines Schlags gegen den Iran

Im Winter 2002/03 sahen die Befürworter eines Regimewechsels im Irak die an die Invasion anschließende Phase des Krieges optimistisch. Wer andeutete, dass das, was heute im Irak passiert, ein wahrscheinliches Szenario sei, wurde als Saddam-freundlicher Befürworter einer Appeasementpolitik, als antiamerikanisch oder beides kritisiert. Dabei hätte eine nüchterne Betrachtung der zu erwartenden Schwierigkeiten geholfen, viele der im Bezug auf Menschenleben und Ressourcen für Amerika so kostspieligen Fehler zu vermeiden – vom Leid der Iraker ganz abgesehen.

Heute nun gibt es Stimmen in den Vereinigten Staaten und andernorts, die sich für eine Militäraktion gegenüber dem Iran aussprechen. Es ist also logisch, zu fragen: Welche realistischen Szenarien für die Folgen einer derartigen Intervention bestehen? Gibt es Pläne, wie die Situation nach dem Militärschlag zu handhaben ist?

Diejenigen, die einen Militärschlag – entweder allein oder im Rahmen einer Koalition – befürworten, haben zweifellos eine Reihe von Optionen; diese reichen von See- und Luftblockaden bis hin zu gezielten Überfällen, Sabotageakten innerhalb des Landes und massiven Angriffen von außen. Aber auch die Iraner haben Trümpfe im Ärmel – einige vorhersehbar, andere weniger.

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