Les risques d’une intervention militaire en Iran

Pendant l’hiver 2002-03, les partisans d’un changement de régime en Irak étaient très optimistes quant à la situation dans le pays après l’invasion. Ceux qui osaient suggérer que le scénario dont nous sommes aujourd’hui témoins était plausible étaient taxés de lâcheté pro-Saddam, d’anti-américanisme, ou des deux. Pourtant, une évaluation réaliste des difficultés à venir aurait permis d’éviter beaucoup d’erreurs qui ont coûté tant de vies et de ressources aux Américains, sans parler des souffrances infligées aux Irakiens.

Aujourd’hui, des voix s’élèvent aux Etats-Unis et ailleurs en faveur d’une intervention militaire en Iran. On peut donc logiquement se demander quelles sont les conséquences possibles d’une telle intervention, et si des stratégies sont en place pour gérer la situation à l’issue du conflit.

Bien évidemment, ceux qui souhaitent attaquer – seuls ou au sein d’une coalition – ont différentes possibilités : blocus maritime et aérien, bombardements ciblés, opérations de sabotage à l’intérieur du pays ou intervention massive venue de l’extérieur. Mais les Iraniens ont aussi des atouts, plus ou moins prévisibles.

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