Rizika úderu proti Íránu

Zastánci změny režimu v Iráku byli v zimě 2002-03 plni optimismu ohledně své vize poinvazní fáze války. Na každého, kdo tehdy označil to, co se dnes děje, za pravděpodobný scénář, dopadala kritika, že je prosaddámovský zastánce appeasementu či protiamerický štváč, anebo obojí. Avšak střízlivé posouzení číhajících těžkostí by bylo napomohlo vyvarovat se mnoha chybám, které si nakonec vyžádaly vysokou cenu s ohledem na americké životy i prostředky – o utrpení Iráčanů ani nemluvě.

Teď některé hlasy ve Spojených státech i jinde navrhují vojenský zásah proti Íránu. Je tedy logické se ptát: jaké jsou realistické scénáře, co se týče důsledků takové intervence? Existují plány ohledně toho jak postupovat v situaci, která nastane po útoku?

Je nepochybné, že ti, kdo jsou ochotni udeřit – ať sami nebo v koalici –, mají celou škálu možností, sahající od námořních a vzdušných blokád přes cílené přepady a sabotáže uvnitř země až po hromadný útok zvenčí. Íránci však také mají své trumfy v rukávu – některé předvídatelné, jiné nečekané.

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