与伊朗作战的危险

2002-03年冬天,对战争后入侵期前景的预测让伊拉克政府更迭的支持者们亢奋不已。只要有人提出可能发生今天这样的状况,肯定会被斥之为拥戴萨达姆的和事佬、反美主义者,或者两者兼具。但如果当时能够清醒地考虑到可能遇到的困难,就能够避免很多错误的发生,而事实已经证明这些错误让美国在生命和资源上付出了惨重的代价¾这还不包括伊拉克人民受到的苦难。

如今美国和其他国家的一些人又要对伊朗采取军事行动。因此我们顺理成章地要问:这样的入侵将给我们带来什么样的真实后果?主张军事干预的人是否考虑过战争后局势的管理计划?

勿庸置疑,那些希望单打独斗或以联盟形式发动战争的人提出了一系列解决方案,从海空封锁到定点打击、从国内预谋破坏到海外大规模袭击。但伊朗人也有自己的应对之策,有些对策我们可以预测,而有些则是极为疯狂的。

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