预言的风险

伯克利—我们这些熟谙金融史、明白金融危机及其影响相关经济思想史的经济学家有理由为我们过去五年中的分析感到自豪。我们知道我们在向何处去,因为我们有前车之鉴。

特别是,我们知道房价的快速上涨加上杠杆的扩张给宏观经济带来了危险。我们看出杠杆金融机构所持资产因泡沫破裂而遭受的损失将导致人们朝安全性多路狂奔,明白阻止深度萧条需要作为最后贷款人的官方干预的积极介入。

事实上,我们知道货币主义疗法很可能并不足够;知道各国需要互相担保偿债能力;也知道过早撤销支持意味着巨大的风险。我们明白过早追求长期财政平衡会恶化短期危机,从而不利于长期生产。我们也理解,我们面临着无就业复苏的威胁,这是由周期性因素而非结构性变化导致的。

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