金融历史主义的危害

每一次经济危机天生就是不可知的——在发生之前以及过程之中。与此相比,我们对已经过去的危机了解得非常清楚。会计复查账本,经历者把自己的故事告诉报纸(有时则是向法官陈述),政客解释清理混乱的原因,最后由历史学家汇成一个完整的故事。

因为过去是可知的,所以了解当前危机的最佳途径就是从过去、甚至是很早以前的经验中寻找一种模式。但是哪一种模式才是正确的?

很多时候,这样的选择更多地取决于知觉、乐观或悲观主义倾向,或者政治取向,而不是建立在对相似点和不同点的理性分析之上。当前,有两个年份正在甚嚣尘上,1907和1931。

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