危险的能源独立幻想

今天追求能源独立的悖论是,对它的追求实际上 增加 了能源的不安全性。不管呼吁能源独立的政治家们对其有怎样不同的看法,是市场选择了石油作为一个主要的能源来源。所以各国政府应该不要去管石油出口国应得的正当利益,这些国家的消费者依赖于这些出口国,也不要去管石油出口国对于能源独立的豪言壮语或者为了实现这一目标而采取步骤的反应。孤立主义的政治家可以不去关心其他国家,但是在会伤害他们自己国家的问题上他们应该三思而行。

对于世界能源安全的最大威胁不是来自恐怖主义的袭击或者石油生产国的禁运。这些短期事件可以通过各种措施而得到迅速和有效的解决,包括依赖战略石油储备、增加石油产量以及分散石油运输等。事实上,对于长期可持续的能源供应的主要威胁是在额外的生产能力和能源基础设施上的投资与对于能源越来越大的需求之间的不协调。

主要的石油出口国对于能源诉求的政治姿态可以作出多种不同的反应,其中绝大多数会恶化而不是改善全球的能源形势。面对世界各国政府和政治家要求减少或者甚至是取消对于石油的依赖的呼吁,石油生产国一个最可行的应对方案是相应地减少在额外生产能力上的投资。

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