危险的能源独立幻想

今天追求能源独立的悖论是,对它的追求实际上 增加 了能源的不安全性。不管呼吁能源独立的政治家们对其有怎样不同的看法,是市场选择了石油作为一个主要的能源来源。所以各国政府应该不要去管石油出口国应得的正当利益,这些国家的消费者依赖于这些出口国,也不要去管石油出口国对于能源独立的豪言壮语或者为了实现这一目标而采取步骤的反应。孤立主义的政治家可以不去关心其他国家,但是在会伤害他们自己国家的问题上他们应该三思而行。

对于世界能源安全的最大威胁不是来自恐怖主义的袭击或者石油生产国的禁运。这些短期事件可以通过各种措施而得到迅速和有效的解决,包括依赖战略石油储备、增加石油产量以及分散石油运输等。事实上,对于长期可持续的能源供应的主要威胁是在额外的生产能力和能源基础设施上的投资与对于能源越来越大的需求之间的不协调。

主要的石油出口国对于能源诉求的政治姿态可以作出多种不同的反应,其中绝大多数会恶化而不是改善全球的能源形势。面对世界各国政府和政治家要求减少或者甚至是取消对于石油的依赖的呼吁,石油生产国一个最可行的应对方案是相应地减少在额外生产能力上的投资。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/InHp79F/zh;
  1. China corruption Isaac Lawrence/Getty Images

    The Next Battle in China’s War on Corruption

    • Chinese President Xi Jinping knows well the threat that corruption poses to the authority of the Communist Party of China and the state it controls. 
    • But moving beyond Xi's anti-corruption purge to build robust and lasting anti-graft institutions will not be easy, owing to enduring opportunities for bureaucratic capture.
  2. Italy unemployed demonstration SalvatoreEsposito/Barcroftimages / Barcroft Media via Getty Images

    Putting Europe’s Long-Term Unemployed Back to Work

    Across the European Union, millions of people who are willing and able to work have been unemployed for a year or longer, at great cost to social cohesion and political stability. If the EU is serious about stopping the rise of populism, it will need to do more to ensure that labor markets are working for everyone.

  3. Latin America market Federico Parra/Getty Images

    A Belt and Road for the Americas?

    In a time of global uncertainty, a vision of “made in the Americas” prosperity provides a unifying agenda for the continent. If implemented, the US could reassert its historical leadership among a group of countries that share its fundamental values, as well as an interest in inclusive economic growth and rising living standards.

  4. Startup office Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    How Best to Promote Research and Development

    Clearly, there is something appealing about a start-up-based innovation strategy: it feels democratic, accessible, and so California. But it is definitely not the only way to boost research and development, or even the main way, and it is certainly not the way most major innovations in the US came about during the twentieth century.

  5. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.