全球衰退的完美风暴

纽约-全球经济——不仅仅只是美国经济——将会经受严重衰退的可能性正在增加。最近的发展表明,所有G7国家的经济正处于衰退之中或者接近陷入衰退。其他发达经济体或新兴市场(欧元区除G7外的其他国家;新西兰,冰岛,爱沙尼亚,拉脱维亚以及一些欧洲东南部经济体)也在进入衰退的硬着陆。当它们真正衰退的时候,金砖四国(巴西,俄罗斯,印度和中国)以及其他新兴市场的经济会急剧放缓。

以下的一些因素导致了迫近的全球衰退:美国,英国,西班牙,爱尔兰以及其他欧元区成员国内房地产泡沫的破灭;长期宽松的货币和信贷政策导致的信贷泡沫被刺破;美国次贷危机后严重的信贷和流动性紧缩;不断下跌的股票市场(全球平均已经下跌超过20%)带来的负面财富和投资效应;通过贸易和美国(美国仍然大约占全球GDP的30%)衰退相连的全球效应;降低了美国的贸易伙伴的竞争力的美元的弱势;迫使各国中央银行在增长和金融稳定有严重下行风险的时候,提高利率来抵御通货膨胀的高油价和高商品价格带来的滞胀效应。

官方数据显示在今年第一季度,美国的经济陷入了衰退。经济——以双底W形的衰退——在第二季度有所反弹,这一反弹由消化1000亿退税的临时效应所推进。但是,这些效应会在夏末消失。

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