全球衰退的完美风暴

纽约-全球经济——不仅仅只是美国经济——将会经受严重衰退的可能性正在增加。最近的发展表明,所有G7国家的经济正处于衰退之中或者接近陷入衰退。其他发达经济体或新兴市场(欧元区除G7外的其他国家;新西兰,冰岛,爱沙尼亚,拉脱维亚以及一些欧洲东南部经济体)也在进入衰退的硬着陆。当它们真正衰退的时候,金砖四国(巴西,俄罗斯,印度和中国)以及其他新兴市场的经济会急剧放缓。

以下的一些因素导致了迫近的全球衰退:美国,英国,西班牙,爱尔兰以及其他欧元区成员国内房地产泡沫的破灭;长期宽松的货币和信贷政策导致的信贷泡沫被刺破;美国次贷危机后严重的信贷和流动性紧缩;不断下跌的股票市场(全球平均已经下跌超过20%)带来的负面财富和投资效应;通过贸易和美国(美国仍然大约占全球GDP的30%)衰退相连的全球效应;降低了美国的贸易伙伴的竞争力的美元的弱势;迫使各国中央银行在增长和金融稳定有严重下行风险的时候,提高利率来抵御通货膨胀的高油价和高商品价格带来的滞胀效应。

官方数据显示在今年第一季度,美国的经济陷入了衰退。经济——以双底W形的衰退——在第二季度有所反弹,这一反弹由消化1000亿退税的临时效应所推进。但是,这些效应会在夏末消失。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/K8NkaSU/zh;
  1. Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images

    The Brexit Surrender

    European Union leaders meeting in Brussels have given the go-ahead to talks with Britain on post-Brexit trade relations. But, as European Council President Donald Tusk has said, the most difficult challenge – forging a workable deal that secures broad political support on both sides – still lies ahead.

  2. The Great US Tax Debate

    ROBERT J. BARRO vs. JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS on the impact of the GOP tax  overhaul.


    • Congressional Republicans are finalizing a tax-reform package that will reshape the business environment by lowering the corporate-tax rate and overhauling deductions. 

    • But will the plan's far-reaching changes provide the boost to investment and growth that its backers promise?


    ROBERT J. BARRO | How US Corporate Tax Reform Will Boost Growth

    JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS | Robert Barro's Tax Reform Advocacy: A Response

  3. Murdoch's Last Stand?

    Rupert Murdoch’s sale of 21st Century Fox’s entertainment assets to Disney for $66 billion may mark the end of the media mogul’s career, which will long be remembered for its corrosive effect on democratic discourse on both sides of the Atlantic. 

    From enabling the rise of Donald Trump to hacking the telephone of a murdered British schoolgirl, Murdoch’s media empire has staked its success on stoking populist rage.

  4. Bank of England Leon Neal/Getty Images

    The Dangerous Delusion of Price Stability

    Since the hyperinflation of the 1970s, which central banks were right to combat by whatever means necessary, maintaining positive but low inflation has become a monetary-policy obsession. But, because the world economy has changed dramatically since then, central bankers have started to miss the monetary-policy forest for the trees.

  5. Harvard’s Jeffrey Frankel Measures the GOP’s Tax Plan

    Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a former member of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers, outlines the five criteria he uses to judge the efficacy of tax reform efforts. And in his view, the US Republicans’ most recent offering fails miserably.

  6. A box containing viles of human embryonic Stem Cell cultures Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images

    The Holy Grail of Genetic Engineering

    CRISPR-Cas – a gene-editing technique that is far more precise and efficient than any that has come before it – is poised to change the world. But ensuring that those changes are positive – helping to fight tumors and mosquito-borne illnesses, for example – will require scientists to apply the utmost caution.

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now