La fiesta terminó

MUNICH – Ahora que Estados Unidos se balancea al borde de la recesión, el auge económico global ha llegado a su fin. La bonanza fue inusualmente prolongada y persistente, con cuatro años de un crecimiento aproximado del 5% -un período de dinamismo económico sostenido nunca visto desde alrededor de 1970.

La señal más clara de que la bonanza estaba terminando es el pronóstico del FMI de un crecimiento del 1,5% para Estados Unidos en 2008. Tal vez eso no suene a una recesión, pero la proyección marginalmente positiva del Fondo refleja principalmente el excedente de crecimiento del 2007, prácticamente sin ningún aporte nuevo en 2008. Esto es compatible con tres trimestres consecutivos de crecimiento cero en 2008.

Muchos sostienen que una recesión estadounidense ya no afectará al mundo porque China ha suplantado a Estados Unidos como motor de la economía global. Error. Si bien China está creciendo rápidamente, su poder económico todavía es reducido. Mientras que Estados Unidos aporta el 28% al PBI mundial, China sólo contribuye con apenas el 5%. Toda Asia, desde Turquía hasta China, aporta el 24%, menos que Estados Unidos solo.   

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