La fête est finie

MUNICH – À présent que les États-Unis chancellent, au bord de la récession, le boom économique mondial est bien terminé. Ce boom a été inhabituellement long et persistant, avec quatre années d’une croissance d’environ 5 % – une période de dynamisme économique soutenu que l’on n’avait plus vu depuis 1970 environ.

Le signe le plus clair que ce boom se termine est la prédiction du FMI, prévoyant une croissance de 1,5 % pour les États-Unis en 2008. Cela ne ressemble peut-être pas à une récession, mais cette projection légèrement positive reflète avant tout le débordement de croissance de 2007, pratiquement dépourvu de toute nouvelle contribution en 2008. Elle est compatible avec trois trimestres consécutifs de croissance nulle en 2008.

Beaucoup avancent que le monde ne sera pas affecté par une récession américaine, car la Chine a supplanté les États-Unis dans son rôle de moteur de l’économie mondiale. C’est faux. Bien que la Chine connaisse une croissance rapide, sa puissance économique reste dérisoire. Alors que les États-Unis contribuent au PIB mondial à hauteur de 28 %, la Chine ne représente que 5 %. Le continent asiatique tout entier, de la Turquie à la Chine, contribue à hauteur de 24 %, soit moins que les États-Unis tout seuls.

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