Flám je u konce

MNICHOV – Spojené státy sklouzávají do recese a globální hospodářský boom dospěl ke konci. Byl nezvykle dlouhý a trvalý, neboť růst dosahoval po čtyři roky zhruba 5% – tak setrvalé období hospodářské dynamiky nezažil svět zhruba od roku 1970.

Nejzřetelnějším signálem končícího boomu je předpověď MMF, podle níž dosáhne růst v USA v roce 2008 hodnoty 1,5%. To se možná nejeví jako recese, avšak marginálně kladná projekce fondu odráží převážně růstový přesah z roku 2007, k němuž samotný rok 2008 prakticky ničím nepřispěje. Odpovídá to třem po sobě jdoucím čtvrtletím s nulovým růstem v letošním roce.

Mnozí lidé argumentují tím, že recese v USA již svět nepostihne, protože v roli motoru světové ekonomiky nahradila Ameriku Čína. Omyl. Čína sice rychle roste, ale její ekonomická síla zůstává nevelká. Zatímco USA přispívají ke světovému HDP 28 procenty, Čína představuje pouhých 5%. Celá Asie od Turecka po Čínu pak přispívá 24 procenty, což je méně než samotné USA.

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