狂欢结束了

    慕尼黑amp#45;amp#45;随着美国经济进入衰退,全球经济繁荣已经结束。这一繁荣不同寻常地长久和具有韧性,四年来每年增长5%,这一持续经济活力时期为1970年左右以来所罕见。

    这一繁荣正在结束最为明显的迹象就是国际货币基金组织预计美国经济在2008年增长1.5%。这听起来或许不是衰退,但是该组织勉强正面的预计主要反映了2007年的增长剩余,而2008年则基本没有什么新的增长贡献。这与2008年连续三个季度零增长是相符合的。

    许多人认为美国经济衰退不会再影响世界,因为中国已经取代美国成为全球经济的发动机。这是错误的。尽管中国正在快速增长,但是它的经济实力还是不足为道。美国经济占全球GDP总量的24%,中国只有5%。从土耳其到中国的整个亚洲占24%,比美国一个国家还要少。

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