La paradoja de dar un paso atrás

SINGAPUR – El mundo recientemente ha sido testigo de dos evasivas diplomáticas importantes. Japón, que enfrenta una creciente presión de China, liberó incondicionalmente al capitán de un pesquero de arrastre chino cuya embarcación había embestido contra un bote de la patrulla naval japonesa. Y el presidente de Estados Unidos, Barack Obama, no hizo nada cuando Israel se negó a extender la prohibición de seguir construyendo edificios nuevos en Cisjordania, lo que provocó que los colonos israelíes de Cisjordania se regocijaran.

En el corto plazo, resulta evidente quién perdió. En el largo plazo, en cambio, el resultado de dar un paso atrás tal vez no sea tan claro. China, en particular, debería sopesar cuidadosamente el precio político a largo plazo de celebrar su supuesta victoria sobre Japón.

De acuerdo con la tercera ley del movimiento de Newton, “para cada acción siempre hay una reacción igual y opuesta”. La geopolítica tiene una ley similar: cuando el mundo ve una nueva potencia emergente, la mayor potencia existente del mundo intenta, directa o indirectamente, bloquear su ascenso. Hoy, la mayor potencial del mundo es Estados Unidos, y la mayor potencia emergente es China. Hasta el momento, curiosamente, Estados Unidos no ha forjado una estrategia para frenar el ascenso de China.

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