Le paradoxe des revirements diplomatiques

SINGAPOUR – On a récemment pu constater deux revirements diplomatiques majeurs. Le Japon, confronté à des pressions croissantes de la Chine, a libéré sans conditions le capitaine d’un chalutier qui était entré en collision avec deux patrouilleurs des gardes-côtes chinois. Et le président Obama n’a pas protesté lorsque Israël a refusé de prolonger le gel de nouvelles constructions en Cisjordanie, à la plus grande joie des colons israéliens.

À court terme, il ne fait aucun doute qui est le perdant. Mais à long terme, battre en retraite pourrait avoir des conséquences moins évidentes. La Chine en particulier devrait soigneusement évaluer les retombées politiques d’une célébration de sa victoire supposée sur le Japon.

La troisième loi du mouvement de Newton ou principe des actions réciproques dit que « Tout corps A exerçant une force sur un corps B subit une force d'intensité égale, de même direction mais de sens opposé, exercée par le corps B ». La géopolitique est régie par une loi similaire : lorsqu’une nouvelle puissance émerge, les grandes puissances existantes tentent, directement ou indirectement, de bloquer son ascension. Les Etats-Unis sont la superpuissance actuelle, et la Chine est la nouvelle puissance émergente. Mais jusqu’à présent, les Etats-Unis n’ont, étonnamment, pas mis sur pied de stratégie pour contrecarrer la Chine.

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