争端的悖论

发自新加坡——全世界最近见证了两件重大外交争端。首先是在中国不断加码的压力之下,日本无条件释放了一名曾驾船与日本海洋巡逻船相撞的中国渔船船长;另外就是以色列拒绝延长西岸定居点冻结期,而美国总统奥巴马对此束手无策,当地的以色列定居者更是欢庆不已。

这些事件在短期内似乎胜负已定,但长远来看,示弱的一方也不是没有卷土重来的机会。中国尤其要小心掂量这场所谓“对日胜利”所带来的长期政治成本。

按照牛顿第三运动定律——“物体A作用在物体B上的力必然产生一个大小相等方向相反的反作用力”,而地缘政治学也有条类似的法则——“每当世界出现一个新势力之时,旧有的统治势力必将想方设法遏制其崛起,不管使用直接还是间接的手段。”当今世界的霸主当属美国,而中国则是最大的新兴势力。但令人惊讶的是,美国迄今为止都未能制定一个阻挠中国崛起的战略。

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