处于涨势的商品

首尔—超级商品周期——商品价格创出历史新高,且回调高于前低——还没有结束。尽管页岩气让人振奋不已,尽管全球增长萎靡不振,商品价格在金融危机后仍上涨了150%。从中期看,这一趋势将维持下去,造成全球通胀风险和生活水平下降。

首先,存在一致意见。随着中国的增长,其规模、财富和城市化的进展将继续助长能源、谷物、矿产和其他资源的需求。

比如,从人均水平看,美国消费的石油量是中国的九倍多。随着更多的中国人向西方消费水平看齐,商品需求——以及价格——将保持上涨趋势。

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