Las viejas economías contraatacan

TOKIO – Poco a poco, el impacto de Abenomics en la economía de Japón está empezando a sentirse. El crecimiento del PBI anual en el primer trimestre fue revisado al alza, a 4,1%, superando las expectativas del mercado y ofreciendo un fuerte indicio de que la economía japonesa finalmente se está recuperando, después de dos décadas de estancamiento. El gasto de los consumidores es especialmente sólido, mientras que los salarios muestran signos de recuperación.

Es más, se espera que la depreciación de la moneda como consecuencia de los esfuerzos del Banco de Japón por incrementar la tasa de inflación anual a 2% beneficie a los exportadores, aunque todavía está por verse un efecto sustancial en la balanza comercial, probablemente debido a los mayores costos de las importaciones. En particular, las plantas de electricidad térmicas han reemplazo a las plantas nucleares del país -inactivas desde el Gran Terremoto del Este de Japón en 2011 -y el yen débil ha castigado duramente la factura de importaciones de petróleo y gas.

La reactivación del crecimiento de Japón se produce en un momento de creciente incertidumbre económica en gran parte del mundo en desarrollo. Por ejemplo, las estadísticas comerciales de Japón para mayo indican que las exportaciones a Estados Unidos aumentaron a un ritmo interanual de dos dígitos, a aproximadamente 5,1 billones de yenes, mientras que las exportaciones a China se mantuvieron lentas, alcanzando 4,8 billones de yenes. De hecho, Estados Unidos superó a China como el principal mercado exportador de Japón, conforme la economía norteamericana también se recupera de 50 años de aletargamiento.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/m3DwduO/es;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now