旧经济的逆袭

东京—安倍经济学对日本经济的影响逐渐开始进入人们的感受。一季度年GDP增长向上修正至4.1%,超过了市场预期,强烈表明日本经济在经历了二十年的停滞后最终开始复苏。随着工资出现上涨信号,消费支出特别稳健。

此外,日本银行为使年通胀率增至2%的措施使日元贬值,预计将有利于出口商,但对贸易平衡的实质影响还有待观察,这可能是拜进口成本增加所赐。特别是,热电站取代了日本的核电站——后者自2011年东日本大地震以来便处于停机状态,弱势日元极大地影响了石油和天然气进口支出。

日本重现增长之时正逢发展中世界纷纷面临经济不确定性抬头。比如,日本5月贸易统计数字表明对美国出口同比增长达到了两位数,至5.1万亿日元左右,而对中国出口毫无亮点,只有4.8万亿日元。事实上,随着美国经济从五年停滞中走出,美国已经取代中国成为日本主要出口市场。

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