Нефтяной шок, которого не было

Предполагалось, что после событий 11 сентября цена на нефть резко взлетит вверх по причине политической нестабильности на Ближнем Востоке. Вместо этого, она упала на 30%, ниже $20 за баррель, а это самый низкий уровень цен за последние два года.

Это падение вызвано тремя причинами. Во-первых, рецессия сильно ударила по некоторым секторам интенсивного потребления нефтепродуктов, таким как авиатранспорт, так что спрос на нефть пошел вниз. Во-вторых, политика Америки (по крайней мере, до настоящего времени) была направлена на избегание открытой конфронтации со странами Персидского залива; а Афганистан, слава Богу, не является нефтедобывающей страной. В-третьих, Россия, выходя из своего постсоветского кризиса, решила, похоже, продолжать расширение своей собственной нефтедобычи, несмотря на свою недавнюю подачку, сделанную для ОПЕК.

Но, несмотря на это кратковременное падение цены на нефть, мы не должны упускать из виду долговременные политические проблемы; а именно, тот факт, что в настоящее время нефтедобыча большей частью сосредоточена в странах, где правит автократия, которая использует нефтяные ресурсы для поддержания репрессивного режима с раздачей должностей и постов по своему усмотрению, поощряет непомерное потребление финансов элитой и закупает ужасающее количество вооружений. Наличие громадных доходов за счет нефти и их неравномерное распределение является постоянным источником внутренней нестабильности и агрессивности в отношении других стран, как показывает современная история Ирака.

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