L'euro n'est pas en crise

BERKELEY – La crise financière mondiale a ressuscité le vieux débat sur la fin imminente de l'euro. On invoque à la rescousse Milton Friedman qui disait en 1998 que le véritable test de l'euro aurait lieu à l'occasion de la première crise économique qui se présentera. Nous y sommes, mais le résultat est à l'opposé des prévisions de Friedman.

Le chômage est à la hausse, de même que le populisme qui l'accompagne. Dans des pays comme l'Italie, déjà touchée par la concurrence chinoise, et l'Espagne frappée de plein fouet par l'éclatement de la bulle de l'immobilier, la crise va être dévastatrice. Pourtant, ni l'un ni l'autre de ces pays n'envisage d'abandonner l'euro.

Ils savent que la moindre évocation de cette éventualité paniquerait les investisseurs. Ils constatent que des pays comme le Danemark qui ont conservé leur propre devise ont été contraints d'augmenter leurs taux d'intérêt pour défendre leur taux de change, ceci au moment ou la Réserve fédérale américaine et la Banque centrale européenne (BCE) baissent les leurs. Ils réalisent que si on était encore à l'époque de la lire et de la peseta, les capitaux auraient fui. Ils sont confrontés à une crise monétaire à l'ancienne au plus mauvais moment et ils voient que l'union apporte stabilité et sécurité.

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