欧元无恙

amp#160;amp#160;amp#160; 伯克利--全球金融危机给欧元即将崩溃这一老生常谈注入了新的生命力。这些观点经常引用弗里德曼的话。他在1998年警告说,欧洲实行欧元的承诺将会在第一场严重的经济衰退中受到考验。这一衰退业已降临,但是结果却与弗里德曼预计的恰恰相反。

amp#160;amp#160;amp#160; 失业率在上升,而且民粹主义姿态也在抬头。在像意大利这样已经忍受中国竞争以及西班牙这样经历巨大房地产泡沫崩溃的国家,其痛苦将会是难以忍受的。但是没有任何一个国家表示想要放弃欧元。

amp#160;amp#160;amp#160; 它们知道,即使是轻声谈论这一可能性也将会引发投资者恐慌。它们目睹丹麦这样维持本国货币的国家如何在美联储和欧洲中央银行降息的时候反而被迫提高利率来维持汇率。它们目睹意大利和西班牙如果还是使用里拉和比塞塔将会发生资本外逃。它们理解它们也会在最困难的时候抵御传统的货币危机。现在局势稳定,数据稳妥,因此它们感到庆幸。

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