La doctrine de choc de Nixon, revue et corrigée

FLORENCE – Richard Nixon a disparu depuis quinze ans mais il fait un retour remarqué en Amérique. Le 37ème président des États-Unis pensait qu’il était peu probable que des discussions puissent influer sur les relations monétaires internationales. Il pensait plutôt qu’une action unilatérale radicale s’imposait. Le Trésor américain subit aujourd’hui de fortes pressions pour suivre le mauvais exemple de Nixon et émettre un avis (prévu le 15 avril) sur le fait que la Chine manipule son taux de change.

Quelques 130 membres du Congrès américain ont signé un document exigeant une action sur la devise chinoise. Cette campagne est appuyée avec enthousiasme par l’un des plus éminents économistes américains spécialiste du commerce, le prix Nobel Paul Krugman.

D’un point de vue actuel, les problèmes de l’ère Nixon paraissent tout à fait gérables, même insignifiants. Les réserves de devises du monde étaient détenues avec une certaine irrationalité : fin 1971, la valeur des réserves de l’Allemagne était de 17,2 milliards de dollars, et celle du Japon, de 14,1 milliards de dollars – respectivement 14% et 11,5% des réserves mondiales. En 2008, dernière année pour laquelle les données sont disponibles, le Japon détenait 23,4 % des réserves mondiales et la Chine 44,8%. Ces chiffres doivent même être revus à la hausse aujourd’hui.

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