Die neun Leben des Daniel Ortega

Wieder einmal steht Nicaragua vor einem möglichen Comeback des Sandinismus. Am 5. November wird in diesem Land in einer bislang einmaligen Wahl mit vier konkurrierenden Kandidaten ein neuer Präsident gewählt und alles fragt sich, ob es Sandinistenführer Daniel Ortega diesmal gelingen wird, wieder an die Macht zu kommen, nachdem er bei jedem der drei letzten Wahlgänge mehr als 10 % Verluste hinnehmen musste.

Nicaraguas Politik ist polarisiert zwischen einer sandinistischen Minderheit und einer klar antisandinistischen Mehrheit und trotzdem hat Ortega echte Chancen auf einen Wahlsieg. Wie kann das sein?

Trotz unübersehbarer Bemühungen der Regierung Bush, die nicaraguanische Rechte zu einigen, sind die antisandinistischen Kräfte in Nicaragua gespalten. Der traditionelle Flügel, die Liberal-Konstitutionalistische Partei (PLC) unter der Führung des früheren Präsidenten Arnoldo Alemán, der nach einer Verurteilung wegen Korruption unter Hausarrest steht, hat José Rizo zum Präsidentschaftskandidaten gekürt. Der moderate Teil, die Nicaraguanische Liberale Allianz (ALN) steht unter der Führung des Bankiers Eduardo Montealegre und wird vor allem vom privaten Sektor und der Bush-Administration unterstützt.

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