Les neuf vies de Daniel Ortega

Aujourd'hui, le Nicaragua se retrouve une nouvelle fois confronté à un possible rétablissement des Sandinistes. Le 5 novembre, le pays tiendra des élections sans précédent avec quatre candidats rivaux, et la question sur toutes les lèvres est de savoir si le leader sandiniste Daniel Ortega, qui a perdu de plus de 10 % lors de chacune des trois dernières élections présidentielles, parviendra cette fois à reprendre le pouvoir.

La politique du Nicaragua est polarisée autour d'une minorité sandiniste et d'une majorité clairement anti-sandiniste, et pourtant Ortega a une vraie chance de gagner. Comment cela est-il possible ?

Malgré les efforts manifestes de l'administration Bush pour unifier la droite nicaraguayenne, les forces anti-sandinistes sont divisées. Le candidat de l'aile traditionnelle, le Parti libéral constitutionnel (PLC), contrôlé par l'ancien président Arnoldo Alemán assigné à résidence depuis qu'il a été inculpé pour corruption, s'appelle José Rizo. La branche modérée, l'Alliance libérale du Nicaragua (ALN), est menée par le banquier Eduardo Montealegre, qui bénéficie d'un énorme soutien du secteur privé et de l'administration Bush.

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