عمق الركود الأمريكي القادم

Aug 27, 2018 Jeffrey Frankel

اسبن ،كولورادو –ان الاقتصاد الامريكي في وضع جيد ولكن الركود القادم –ودائما سيأتي الركود- سيكون سيئا للغايه .

طبقا لتقديرات مكتب التحليل الاقتصادي في الولايات المتحده الأمريكيه فإن نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في الربع الثاني من سنة 2018 وصل الى 4،1 % - الاعلى منذ نسبة 4،9% والتي وصل اليها آبان حكم الرئيس باراك اوباما سنة 2014 . ان سنة اخرى من النمو تعني تحقيق التوسع القياسي والذي استمر لفترة عشر سنوات في التسعينات واذا اضفنا لذلك البطاله المنخفضه فإن الامور تبدو جيده بالفعل .

لكن هذا لا يمكن ان يستمر للإبد ونظرا لوجود دين تجاري عالمي ضخم وسوق اسهم امريكي مرتفع – نسبة السعر إلى الربح المعدلة دوريًا مرتفعة وفقًا للمعايير التاريخية-فإن احد العوامل التي قد تؤدي لحدوث انكماش في السنوات القادمه هو صدمه سلبيه يمكن ان تؤدي الى هبوط حاد في الاوراق الماليه .

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 17 Comments on this article

velasquezrojasomar Jun 4, 2020

If the original threshold (50 billion) was too low, the Trump administration action of raise the threshold for stress test is not right?
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Barry Rosenfeld Sep 2, 2018

Don't worry, when the tsunami hits, the Democrats will be in office and the Republicans will have rediscovered their "fiscal hawk" costumes.
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Levis Kochin Sep 2, 2018

The limits to Fed’s stimulus in negative real interest rates are set by the expected rate of inflation and the zero nominal interest rate bound. Raising target interest rates now will lower inflation and expected inflation.
If providing space for expansionary policy is the priority then the Fed’s target inflation rate should be raised.
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B Wilds Sep 2, 2018

Things will get most interesting going forward. Much will depend on the amount of wealth that is able to escape the next large economic crisis. This is very important because it will set the bar that determines the rate of inflation or deflation in coming years. Pensions, annuities, and even investments in stocks and such all fall into the area of paper promises that are often recorded somewhere far from sight as a digital entry on a computer.

The amount of wealth stored in these intangible areas based on faith have grown at a massive rate during the last several decades and were relatively minor players until recently. Currencies, also known as fiat money, are also just IOUs or paper promises. The article below delves into what might be left standing after the next financial meltdown.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2018/03/how-much-wealth-will-escape-next.html
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D.V. Paranjpe Sep 2, 2018

I quote you: "But, with those rates currently standing at only 2%, such a move is impossible". A negative interest rate policy would get us there!
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z z Sep 1, 2018

Jeffrey, can you answer Phil's comment? My same sentiments. They can do another QE! Same money printing, different route.
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Phil 1 Aug 30, 2018

And how exactly does a country with fiat currency 'run out of fiscal space'? The only difference between dollars and treasury bonds is that bonds pay interest. The Fed has complete control over the yield on bonds by being able to purchase an infinite amount of them. The 'national debt' became meaningless as soon as we left the gold standard. The only relevant concern when it comes to government spending is the availability of real resources (water, oil, sand, labor, ect) because spending beyond the productive capacity of the country would just generate inflation. I'm starting to think someone should require economists to spend one year forcibly unemployed but required to keep looking for jobs so that they could get a feel for just how evil it is to continue advocating for the forcible unemployment of 4% of the workforce as a way to stop inflation. Any level of unemployment is a policy choice, and involuntary unemployment is probably one of the most sadistic things you can do to someone. The government can always afford to hire it's own citizens, refusing to do so because economists didn't notice we left the gold standard is unforgivable.
- Levis Kochin Sep 2, 2018
  
  Venezuela shows the limits of expansionary monetary policy. At the limit expectations of inflation will lower real balances so far that new finite amount of money printing can cover the government’s deficit.
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Godfree Roberts Aug 27, 2018

'Even China is vulnerable to slowing growth and high levels of debt.' Indeed it is, but its vulnerability is literally an order of magnitude lower than any major economy. Their officials' experience and confidence is evidenced by their Babe Ruth style ability to call their shots and put the growth right where they want it–year after year, decade after decade. With the trust and support of 90% of their people, they can handle almost anything.
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Janos Nagy Aug 27, 2018

Understanding the importance of the recession in the cycle in the so called capitalist economic system based on profits and debts would help more than worrying about something that is a natural effect of the system.
Growing economic output is higher profits equal higher debts.
Shrinking economic output or recession is negative profits but also reducing the debts.
When corporate profits are negative than incomes are higher than spending therefore savings can be higher or reducing the past debt with the extra income can help start sending again.
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John Patrick Cooney Aug 27, 2018

Dr Frankel,

Thank you for ringing the bell to alert us to the massive and growing debt given policy decisions
that exclude any wiggle room. Possibly, we could encourage the wealthiest to lead the way in debt reduction by overpaying for future advantages and reduced spending. Conversely, we could sell NYC, LA, and Chicago to the Chinese.
- Janos Nagy Aug 27, 2018
  
  Funny but it's a possibility
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