Año nuevo, sin grandes novedades

NUEVA YORK – Cualquier mirada retrospectiva al año 2012 deberá incluir entre sus aspectos más destacados tres regiones del mundo: la eurozona, con sus incertidumbres financieras que aparentemente nunca terminan; Oriente Próximo y sus numerosos cataclismos, entre ellos (y esta lista es cualquier cosa menos exhaustiva) el ascenso al poder de la Hermandad Musulmana en Egipto y la cruenta guerra civil en Siria, que ya se cobró más de 60.000 vidas; y la región de Asia y el Pacífico, con un aumento del nacionalismo y las tensiones políticas, tras varias décadas de caracterizarse exclusivamente por una combinación de extraordinario crecimiento económico y considerable tranquilidad política.

¿Pero cuáles serán las cuestiones dominantes en 2013? En buena medida, como dicen los franceses, plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose. Es decir, podemos predecir sin temor a equivocarnos que en Europa no se acabarán las dificultades y que los países del sur (sobre todo) deberán esforzarse por reducir el gasto público para poner sus políticas fiscales en correspondencia con su verdadera capacidad económica.

Pero es posible que este año haya una diferencia: tal vez el país que estará en el centro de la tormenta sea Francia, en vez de Grecia y España. Esto suscitará cuestionamientos fundamentales e incluso existenciales para Alemania, la otra mitad del tándem central del proyecto europeo desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Es probable que Europa en su conjunto experimente un período de crecimiento económico escaso o nulo, lo que dificultará en gran medida la tarea de los funcionarios con cargos en los gobiernos, los bancos y las instituciones regionales.

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