O novo ano velho

NOVA IORQUE – Qualquer retrospecção que se efectuasse ao ano de 2012, iria focar necessariamente três partes do mundo: a zona euro, com as suas intermináveis incertezas financeiras; o Médio Oriente, com as suas várias convulsões sociais, incluindo (mas não se limitando a) o acesso da Irmandade Muçulmana ao poder no Egipto e a guerra civil selvagem na Síria, que já ceifou mais de 60 mil vidas; e a região Ásia-Pacífico, com o seu crescente nacionalismo e tensões políticas após décadas a ser definida quase que exclusivamente por um crescimento económico extraordinário, no meio de uma calma política considerável.

Mas quais são as questões que irão dominar 2013? Em grande parte, como os franceses gostam de dizer, plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose. Assim, podemos prever com segurança uma dificuldade contínua em toda a Europa, enquanto os países do Sul, em particular, lutam para reduzir a despesa pública, a fim de alinharem as suas políticas fiscais com a real capacidade económica.

O que pode ser diferente este ano é o facto de que a França, em vez da Grécia e de Espanha, poderá bem estar no centro da tempestade. Isto levantará questões fundamentais, até mesmo existenciais, à Alemanha, a outra metade de um tandem que tem estado no centro do projecto europeu desde a Segunda Guerra Mundial. A probabilidade de que a Europa, como um todo, irá sentir um pequeno crescimento económico, ou quem sabe nenhum, tornará tudo mais difícil aos representantes dos governos, dos bancos e das instituições regionais.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in

  1. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    Angela Merkel’s Endgame?

    The collapse of coalition negotiations has left German Chancellor Angela Merkel facing a stark choice between forming a minority government or calling for a new election. But would a minority government necessarily be as bad as Germans have traditionally thought?

  2. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.

  3. A GrabBike rider uses his mobile phone Bay Ismoyo/Getty Images

    The Platform Economy

    While developed countries in Europe, North America, and Asia are rapidly aging, emerging economies are predominantly youthful. Nigerian, Indonesian, and Vietnamese young people will shape global work trends at an increasingly rapid pace, bringing to bear their experience in dynamic informal markets on a tech-enabled gig economy.

  4. Trump Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Profiles in Discouragement

    One day, the United States will turn the page on Donald Trump. But, as Americans prepare to observe their Thanksgiving holiday, they should reflect that their country's culture and global standing will never recover fully from the wounds that his presidency is inflicting on them.

  5. Mugabe kisses Grace JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP/Getty Images

    How Women Shape Coups

    In Zimbabwe, as in all coups, much behind-the-scenes plotting continues to take place in the aftermath of the military's overthrow of President Robert Mugabe. But who the eventual winners and losers are may depend, among other things, on the gender of the plotters.

  6. Oil barrels Ahmad Al-Rubaye/Getty Images

    The Abnormality of Oil

    At the 2017 Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, the consensus among industry executives was that oil prices will still be around $60 per barrel in November 2018. But there is evidence to suggest that the uptick in global growth and developments in Saudi Arabia will push the price as high as $80 in the meantime.

  7. Israeli soldier Menahem Kahana/Getty Images

    The Saudi Prince’s Dangerous War Games

    Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is working hard to consolidate power and establish his country as the Middle East’s only hegemon. But his efforts – which include an attempt to trigger a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon – increasingly look like the work of an immature gambler.