旧事重演

纽约——回顾2012年注定要关注世界三大区域:欧元区以及似乎无休无止的金融动荡;中东剧变,包括但不限于穆斯林兄弟会在埃及执政和已经夺去60,000多人生命的野蛮叙利亚内战;还有亚太地区,在经历数十年异乎寻常的经济增长和政治平静后,民族主义和政治紧张局势逐渐抬头。

但究竟什么能够成为2013年的主题?很大程度上正如法国人所津津乐道的那样,万变不离其宗。因此,我们可以准确地预测出欧洲仍将面临困难,特别是南欧国家为使财政政策与实际经济能力相匹配,不得不努力削减公共开支。

今年与去年不同的是,法国有可能取代希腊和西班牙成为风暴的核心。这可能给二战后一直处在欧洲核心地位的与法国对等的德国带来根本、甚至是生死攸关的问题。欧洲经济即使实现整体增长也将微乎其微,这一大概率事件将使政府、银行和地区机构官员面临更加棘手的问题。

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