新的核威胁

柏林——人类总喜欢对抽象的威胁遮遮掩掩。他们只有在烧到手指以后才做出反应。但在处理核威胁的问题上,这种孩子式的行为方式很难侥幸取得成功。

首先,冷战结束后尤其是美俄两国保存下来的旧有的核威慑体系仍然存在着大量的风险和隐患。但国际社会却在很大程度上忽视这样一个事实,因此原有的风险依然存在。

有一点可以肯定,那就是在20世纪90年代,美国和俄国将自己的核武器从65,000件降低到了26,000件,但这样一个数字仍然几乎不可想象,远远超出了达到威慑目的需要保留的合理范畴。不仅如此,还有另外1,000多件核武器掌握在其他有核国家的手中。

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