La última tendencia de la economía

La Gran Depresión puso a John Maynard Keynes en el centro del pensamiento económico. La nueva visión "keynesiana" era que el gasto de inversión privada es inherentemente inestable (debido a los caprichos y modas de los inversionistas, o debido a los cambios en los "espíritus animales" de los hombres de negocios, o porque la caída de los precios significa una interrupción del sistema financiero.)

Los keynesianos pensaban que una política monetaria prudente (con los bancos centrales elevando y reduciendo los tipos de interés para disminuir las fluctuaciones en el gasto de inversión privada) haría parte de la tarea de estabilizar la economía. Pero también creían que el gobierno debía tener la voluntar de intervenir directamente, a través de una política fiscal expansiva, para mantener estable el nivel general de gasto en una economía. Una política así, pensaban, haría desaparecer para siempre el espectro del desempleo a gran escala, como se había visto en la Gran Depresión. Más aún, se debería garantizar un empleo casi total.

Los keynesianos previeron que un empleo casi completo aumentaba la amenaza de la inflación. Después de todo, ¿por qué los trabajadores y los sindicatos deberían moderar sus exigencias salariales si los gobiernos aumentarán el gasto cada vez que aparezcan perspectivas de un alto desempleo? Una de las grandes limitantes a las exigencias salariales altas (el temor a ser despedidos cuando aumente el desempleo) había desaparecido. ¿Qué la reemplazaría?

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