Новый денежно-кредитный беспорядок

ПРИНСТОН – Валютный хаос вернулся, выдвинув на первый план требование относительно пересмотра международного денежно-кредитного порядка. Быстрое снижение курса доллара и фунта, а вместе с ними и женьминьби – более твердо привязанной сегодня к доллару, чем когда-либо – еще сильнее накаляет отношения. К тому же, вернулись некоторые из призраков 1930-ых годов – в частности опасение относительно несправедливых торговых преимуществ, вызванных конкурентоспособной девальвацией. Американский министр финансов Тимоти Гейтнер уже обвинил Китай в манипуляциях с валютой.

Есть два альтернативных и резко контрастирующих подхода к пониманию правильности валюты. Один из них заключается в проведении международной конференции, на которой эксперты предлагают модели вычисления обменных курсов, а политические деятели договариваются об их применении. Единственный успешный случай такой договоренности – Бреттон-вудская конференция 1944 года, но даже тогда обменные курсы, установленные на ней, оказались нереалистичными, и вскоре понадобилась огромная волна паритетных изменений (а так же установление валютного контроля).

Другие конференции, основным на которых был валютный вопрос, оказались провальными. Президент Ричард Никсон приветствовал Смитсоновское соглашение 1971 года, как «самое значимое денежно-кредитное соглашение в мировой истории». Однако очень скоро оно было разорвано, а мир пустился в свободное плавание.

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