新的货币无序状态

普林斯顿 ——汇率乱象卷土重来。这凸显了对国际货币新秩序的需求。美元、英镑以及空前未有地紧盯美元的人民币汇率迅速走低,引发摩擦。1930年代的幽灵有些又借尸还魂了,尤其是由货币竞相贬值所引起的对不公平贸易优势的担忧。美国财长盖特纳已经谴责中国在操纵汇率了。

矫正汇率乱象有两种办法,但它们相互之间是尖锐对立的。一种是召开国际会议,由专家提议汇率计算模型,再由政治家来谈判。这种安排唯一成功的例子就是1944年的布雷顿森林会议。但即便是布雷顿森林会议所确定的固定汇率也被证明是脱离实际的,所以很快就出现了一轮修正货币平价(parity alterations)以及坚持汇率管制的潮流。

其他以汇率问题为中心的会议统统都失败了。美国总统尼克松曾赞誉1971年代的史密森协定(Smithsonian Agreement)是“世界历史上最具意义的货币协定。”但这个体系很快就分崩离析,各国的汇率安排也纷纷转向浮动汇率。

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