الفوضى النقدية الجديدة

برينستون ـ لقد عادت فوضى العملة من جديد، لكي تسلط الضوء على المطالبة بنظام نقدي دولي معدَّل. والواقع أن الانحدار السريع للدولار والجنيه الإسترليني، والرنمينبي أيضاً ـ والذي أصبح الآن أشد ارتباطاً بالدولار من أي وقت مضى ـ من الأسباب التي أدت إلى تفاقم التوتر. كما عادت أيضاً بعض أشباح أزمة ثلاثينيات القرن العشرين ـ وخاصة الخوف من الامتيازات التجارية الظالمة الناتجة عن التسابق على خفض قيمة العملات. وبالفعل، اتهم تيموثي جايثنر وزير خزانة الولايات المتحدة الصين بالتلاعب بالعملة.

هناك نهجان بديلان يتسمان بالتباين الشديد للتعامل مع قضية العملة على الوجه السليم. الأول يتلخص في عقد مؤتمر دولي حيث يستطيع الخبراء اقتراح النماذج اللازمة لحساب أسعار الصرف وحيث يستطيع الساسة أن يتفاوضوا على الصفقات. والحدث الناجح الوحيد القريب من هذا الترتيب كان مؤتمر بريتون وودز الذي انعقد في عام 1944، ولكن حتى في ذلك الحين كانت أسعار الصرف التي تم التوصل إليها من خلال ذلك المؤتمر غير واقعية، وسرعان ما نشأت الحاجة إلى تعديلات ضرورية لمعامل التكافؤ (فضلاً عن صيانة ضوابط صرف العملة).

والتاريخ حافل بمؤتمرات أخرى تمحورت حول قضية العملة وانتهت إلى الفشل الذريع. كان الرئيس ريتشارد نيكسون قد احتفى باتفاقية سميثونيان في عام 1971 باعتبارها ampquot;الاتفاقية النقدية الأكثر أهمية في تاريخ العالمampquot;. ولكن هذه الاتفاقية سرعان ما أصبحت خارج الخدمة وانتقل العالم إلى التعويم المعمم للعملة.

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