Die neue Ordnung im Nahen und Mittleren Osten

Irgendwann in diesem Monat wird Präsident George W. Bush – widerstrebend – die neue Strategie der Vereinigten Staaten im Irak verkünden. Diese neue Strategie ist nicht nur deshalb notwendig, um Amerika bei seinem Versuch, einen offenen Bürgerkrieg zu verhindern, vor dem Abdriften in die völlige Handlungsunfähigkeit zu bewahren, sondern auch, weil sich die Machtverhältnisse im Nahen und Mittleren Osten dramatisch verändert haben.

Diese Machtverhältnisse unterlagen in den letzten 60 Jahren permanenten Veränderungen, da die wichtigsten Akteure – Ägypten, Irak, Saudi Arabien, Syrien, Israel und der Iran – Bündnisse geschlossen und wieder gebrochen haben. Jetzt zeigt sich so etwas wie eine Trennlinie und wenn Bush endlich beginnt, die Kräfteverhältnisse in der Region zu verstehen, könnte es ihm gelingen, mit einer Strategie aufzuwarten, die auch gewisse Erfolgschancen hat.

Diese regionale Neuausrichtung findet ihren Ausdruck in einem eigentlich undenkbaren De-facto-Bündnis. Israel und Saudi Arabien, die wohl unvorstellbarsten aller Bündnispartner haben sich zusammengefunden, um ihrem gemeinsamen Feind Einhalt zu gebieten: dem Iran und seinen sprunghaft wachsenden Einfluss im Irak, dem Libanon und Palästina. Mit seinen nuklearen Ambitionen und seinen militanten schiitischen Handlangern bedroht der Iran nicht nur Israel (und die ganze Region), sondern versucht auch die traditionelle Rolle der moderaten sunnitisch-arabischen Regierungen als Fürsprecher der Palästinenser an sich zu reißen.

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