Un nouvel équilibre au Moyen-Orient

Le Président George W. Bush doit annoncer ce mois-ci – à contrecœur – une nouvelle stratégie américaine en Irak. Cela s’impose non seulement pour mettre fin à la dérive impuissante des Etats-Unis, qui essayent en vain d’empêcher l’Irak de sombrer pour de bon dans la guerre civile, mais aussi parce que le contexte géopolitique au Moyen-Orient a considérablement changé.

Ce contexte évolue constamment depuis soixante ans, au gré des alliances et des ruptures entre les principaux acteurs : l’Egypte, l’Irak, l’Arabie saoudite, la Syrie, Israël et l’Iran. Aujourd’hui, une nouvelle ligne de démarcation est en train de se dessiner, et si Bush comprend enfin la dynamique de la région, il a peut-être une chance de concevoir une politique susceptible de porter ses fruits.

Cette redistribution des influences régionales est illustrée par l’émergence d’une alliance qui ne dit pas son nom. Israël et l’Arabie saoudite, partenaires peu plausibles, unissent leurs forces pour faire obstacle à leur ennemi commun : l’Iran, dont l’influence ne cesse de croître en Irak, au Liban et en Palestine. Non seulement l’Iran menace Israël (et la région) avec ses ambitions nucléaires et les militants chiites qui agissent pour son compte, mais il cherche aussi à s’approprier le rôle de défenseur des Palestiniens, apanage historique des régimes arabes sunnites modérés.

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