中东新秩序

本月某些时候,美国总统布什将不情愿地宣布美国在伊拉克的新政策。人们需要一个新政策,不仅是为了在美国防止伊拉克陷于全面内战的时候阻止美国滑入无能为力的境地,而且是因为中东的势力地图已经面目全非。

这一地图在过去60年中一直在不停变化。这段期间,埃及、伊拉克、沙特、叙利亚、以色列以及伊朗等主要国家忽而结盟,忽而反目。现在,一条类似分界线的东西正在出现,而如果布什最终开始理解该地区的动态形势,他就有可能制定一项可能成功的政策。

该地区各国纵横捭阖的典型就是一个事实上心照不宣的结盟正在形成。以色列和沙特这两个看起来是最不可能的盟友已经共同遏制伊朗它们共同的敌人。伊朗在伊拉克、黎巴嫩和巴勒斯坦的影响力与日俱增。伊朗觊觎核武器能力并且指使其什叶派代理人好战份子,不仅威胁以色列以及该地区,而且还在寻求僭取温和的逊尼派阿拉伯政权传统的巴勒斯坦人保护人的角色。

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