Os vencedores (relativos) da nova economia mundial

CAMBRIDGE - A economia mundial enfrenta uma incerteza considerável a curto prazo. Será que a zona euro conseguirá resolver os seus problemas e evitar uma dissolução? Será que os Estados Unidos construirão um caminho para um relançamento do crescimento? Será que a China encontrará uma forma de reverter o seu abrandamento económico?

As respostas a estas perguntas irão determinar como é que a economia mundial evoluirá ao longo dos próximos anos. Mas, independentemente da forma como esses desafios imediatos são resolvidos, está claro que a economia mundial está também a entrar numa nova fase difícil a longo prazo - uma fase que será substancialmente menos hospitaleira para o crescimento económico do que possivelmente qualquer outro período, desde o final da Segunda Guerra Mundial.

Independentemente da forma como irão lidar com as suas dificuldades actuais, a Europa e os EUA sairão da situação com dívidas elevadas, baixas taxas de crescimento e políticas internas contenciosas. Mesmo no melhor cenário, no qual o euro permanece intacto, a Europa ficará atolada na árdua tarefa de reconstruir a sua união desgastada. E, nos EUA, a polarização ideológica entre democratas e republicanos continuará a paralisar a política económica.

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