I Vincitori (Relativi) della Nuova Economia Globale

CAMBRIDGE – Nel breve periodo, l’economia mondiale si trova a fronteggiare notevoli incertezze. L’eurozona sarà in grado di risolvere i propri problemi ed evitare il collasso? Sarà possibile per gli Stati Uniti progettare un percorso di rinnovata crescita? La Cina riuscirà a trovare un modo per invertire il corso della crisi economica interna?

Le risposte a queste domande determineranno il modo in cui vedremo evolvere l’economia globale nei prossimi anni. Ma, indipendentemente da come verranno risolte tali sfide immediate, è chiaro che, al tempo stesso, l’economia mondiale sta entrando in una nuova difficile fase di più lungo termine - una fase sostanzialmente meno favorevole alla crescita economica di qualsiasi altro periodo dalla fine della Seconda Guerra Mondiale.

Indipendentemente dal modo in cui gestiscono le loro difficoltà attuali, sia l’Europa che l’America ne verranno fuori con un elevato livello del debito, un basso tasso di crescita , e politiche interne conflittuali. Anche nel migliore dei casi, nel quale l’euro resti intatto, l’Europa dovrà impantanarsi nell’impegnativo compito di ricostituire la sua unione sfilacciata. E, negli Stati Uniti, la polarizzazione ideologica tra Democratici e Repubblicani continuerà a paralizzare la politica economica.

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