Die (relativen) Gewinner der neuen globalen Wirtschaft

CAMBRIDGE – Auf die Weltwirtschaft kommen in nächster Zeit beträchtliche Ungewissheiten zu. Wird es dem Euroraum gelingen, seine Probleme zu lösen und ein Auseinanderbrechen zu verhindern? Werden sich die Vereinigten Staaten wieder auf den Weg des Wachstums begeben? Wird China eine Möglichkeit finden, seinen Konjunkturrückgang umzukehren?

Von den Antworten auf diese Fragen wird es abhängen, wie sich die Weltwirtschaft in den nächsten Jahren entwickelt. Doch unabhängig davon, wie diese unmittelbar bevorstehenden Herausforderungen gemeistert werden, steht fest, dass sich die Weltwirtschaft auch am Anfang einer schwierigen neuen längerfristigen Phase befindet – einer Phase, die möglicherweise ein wesentlich feindlicheres Klima für das Wirtschaftswachstum aufweisen wird als irgendein anderer Zeitraum seit dem Ende des Zweiten Weltkriegs.

Egal, wie sie ihre aktuellen Schwierigkeiten bewältigen: Europa und Amerika werden mit hoher Verschuldung, geringen Wachstumsraten und innenpolitischen Konflikten aus der Krise gehen. Selbst im besten Fall, in dem der Euro intakt bleibt, wird Europa von der anspruchsvollen Aufgabe, seine bröckelnde Einheit wiederherzustellen, aufgehalten werden. In den USA wird zudem die ideologische Polarisierung zwischen Demokraten und Republikanern weiterhin die Wirtschaftspolitik lähmen.

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